Scenario analysis in the measurement of operational risk. Maack scenario analysis has been used by the private sector for the last 25 years to manage risk and develop robust strategic plans in the face of. Quantitative risk analysis scenarios, modeling, and. The objective of this guide is to present a simple framework for risk and insurance managers to lead scenario analysis within their business, and. Scenario analysis is all about alternative worlds and parallel universes and may include black swans, but stops short of meteor strikes. What if scenario analysis is a simulation method that compares and measures the effects of different scenarios on a project schedule. Usingscenarioanalysisfor riskmanagement rudi zagst, risklab gmbh, arabellastr. The scenario analysis components use a funds exposure to the 36 factors in the morningstar global risk model. Although scenario analysis is an important tool for financial risk measurement, its use in the measurement of operational risk capital has been arbitrary and often inaccurate. Assessment of risks across a bank improve risk management when necessary. In the example proposed, the spreadsheet contains the figured for an.
Sensitivity analysis is the process of sensitivity analysis is the process of recalculating outcomes under alternative assumptions to determine the impact of a particular variable. One of the methods used for operational risk management is a scenario analysis. Such as, the probability distribution of sales determines the risk inherent in the sales. Thomas alderweireld, joao garcia and luc leonard define an operational risk scenario analysis and its quantification technique, leading to the determination of the loss distribution characteristics. Scenario analysis belgian risk management association.
Risk analysis and industrial hygiene risk analysis methods and tools are important resources for articulating scientific knowledge to those who make decisions regarding public and occupational. Generating market risk scenarios using principal components analysis. They are really a part of sensitivity and risk analysis and generally treated under qualitative risk analysis e. Under this method, custom plausible loss events defined in a particular. Postma department of management and organisation faculty of economics, university of groningen p. Scenario analysis is a key method of exploring and assessing these implications. Pdf operational risk scenario analysis researchgate. Sensitivity analysis scenario analysis it is utilized for analyzing the. A simple scenario analysis can be managed in a spreadsheet where we can insert data and functions that represent our business model. Sensitivity analysis is the process of recalculating outcomes under alternative. Working with scenarios, risk assessment and capabilities. The product of scenario planning is a set of stories. Latest scenario analysis articles on risk management, derivatives and complex finance. Since the expected value is already risk adjusted, this would represent a double counting of potentially the same risk or risk that should not be a factor in the decision in the first place because it is.
Valuing a company with scenario analysis to illustrate scenario analysis, consider a simple example. Although the approach presented is applicable to risks outside it, it has primarily been used for identifying informationit security related risks. This section covers the following topics and exercises. To get senior stakeholders to buy in to alternative macroeconomic scenarios, risk management and alm teams must assemble risk models and riskadjusted performance measurements in their simulation. Scenario analysis as a strategic management tool robert p. In this section, we first consider an extreme version of scenario analysis where we consider the value in the best and the worst case scenarios, and then a more generalized version of scenario analysis. Scenario planning a tool for navigating strategic risk. Scenario analysis is frequently recommended by airmic as a tool for risk managers to aid their business in understanding its risk exposures, and support strategic planning. Operational risk scenario analysis ies working paper 152008. Schwartz provides an excellent, easytoread introduction to scenario analysis.
Projecting investment returns or losses the analysis makes use of tools to calculate the. In scenario analysis, not only the sensitivity of npv is evaluated in terms of the change in the underlying variables, but also, the probabilities are assigned to each variable on the basis of risk inherent in each. Before undertaking scenario analysis, there must a clear agreement of the governance for the process, and how this feeds into the overall risk management system for the business. In this section, we first consider an extreme version of scenario analysis where we consider the value in the best and the. Generating market risk scenarios using principal components. Synergist april, 2012 risk analysis is a framework for decision making under uncertainty.
A practical operational risk scenario analysis quantification. Outcomes are visible given the different scenarios envisaged and so are the paths that lead to them from the current situation, giving an organization more scope to refine and adjust plans accordingly. A quantitative risk analysis and modeling technique used to help determine which risks have the most potential impact on. Institutions must switch from a qualitative to a quantitative approach to analysis so they can effectively define risk appetite. A different methodology, leading to equivalent results, is described in schoemaker 1995. Sensitivity analysis is the process of recalculating outcomes under alternative assumptions to determine the impact of a particular variable. It uses schedule network analysis to determine the effects of various. Under this method, custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are merged with the original data sample and their impact on capital estimates and on the financial institution as a whole is evaluated. Forwardlooking scenario analysis 7 recognising the inadequacies of value at risk var metrics in measuring portfolio risk, investment practitioners and regulators have increasingly focused on stress. Dec 14, 2016 5 scenario analysis differs from techniques such as sensitivity analysis, forecasting or value at risk var. Scenario analysis forms part of the risk management system for the business, but scenarios are separate from risks. However, stress testing and scenario analysis are integral to prudent credit risk management and can complement measures such as var and es, thereby better informing both risk assessment and.
Combining internal loss data, scorecards and scenario analysis. My description of scenario creation and use is based on exercises conducted with global business network and is described in more detail by schwartz. Regarding why scenario analysis is useful, in an article published in lumina decision systems in june, 20 estimating risk. It takes the best and worst probabilities into account so that investors can make an informed decision. Risk analysis and industrial hygiene risk analysis methods and tools are important resources for articulating scientific knowledge to those who make decisions regarding public and occupational health. Under this method, custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are merged with the original data. Identification of key risks on banks business forwardlooking point of view ex post analysis data collection of incidents, accidents, operational errors, etc. The entire process of the scenario analysis assumes the specific changes or alterations in the values of the portfolios securities change in the interest rates and the consideration of other market dynamics. Risk assessment besides the greeks there are other techniques we can use to evaluate, report, and measure risk, namely, valueatrisk assessment and scenario analysis. Our aim is to evaluate risk for a particular plan of action according to different scenarios or situations. Scenariobased risk appetite modeling techniques moodys. Scenarios besides description have the following properties risk type, line of business, process, business unit.
It can give animportant apriori information toa risk or portfolio manager and helps to control the eect of price changes to a portfolio, especially those of potential market crashes. Babbel, david f combining scenario analysis with loss data in operational risk quantification. It is also a good idea to familiarize yourself with the following definitions to fully understand quantitative risk analysis. Scenario analysis, operational risk capital, stress testing, change of measure, loss data. As part of the analysis of risks to the financial condition of a firm, these methods are essential tools for effective risk management and macro prudential oversight. Working with the scenario analysis worksheet in either an investment workbook or portfolio workbook, the scenario analysis overview worksheet shows how one or more accounts, funds, or portfolios. Hassani, scenario analysis in risk management, doi 10. You will need to know some quantitative risk analysis techniques for the pmp certification exam.
Using scenario analysis to manage the strategic risks of. Box 800, 9700 av groningen the netherlands tel 31 50 363 3684 fax. Stress testing and scenario analysis international actuarial. It is also really important to understand that the risk assessment resulting from a scenario analysis may result in the acceptance of this risk. To get senior stakeholders to buy in to alternative macroeconomic scenarios, risk management and alm teams must assemble risk models and risk adjusted performance measurements in their simulation tools. Scenario analysis is a way of structuring thinking about the future, of identifying potential problems and also of increasing preparedness to handle them. In concert with the funds constituents, the factors calculate the probable impact of past market events on a fund, should they reoccur in the future. Technical supplement the use of scenario analysis in.
In this article, we will introduce two additional techniques for risk assessment and reporting. This paper proposes a structured approach to scenario analysis for basel ii, based. In this paper, scenario should be taken to mean risk scenario. Given the importance of forwardlooking assessments of climaterelated risks and. Scenario analysis can be defined as the process of estimating the futuristic and expected value of the portfolio after the specific fulcrum of time frame. The committees that have overall responsibility and the individuals who manage the exercise will depend on the overall objectives. Since the expected value is already risk adjusted, this would represent a double counting of potentially the same risk or risk that should not be a factor in the decision in the first place because it is diversifiable. A best practice approach the pembina institute 2 residents and communities. My description of scenario creation and use is based on exercises conducted with global business network and is described in. Macroeconomic scenario analysis which integrates climate scenarios has unique value to different classes of institutional investors, helping each to identify climaterelated weaknesses in portfolio. We propose a method that combines scenario analysis with historical loss data. Maack scenario analysis has been used by the private sector for the last 25 years to manage risk and develop robust strategic plans in the face of an uncertain future. Structured scenario analysis factsheet pdf the analytics.
Scenario analysis in the measurement of operational risk capital. Working with the scenario analysis worksheet in either an investment workbook or portfolio workbook, the scenario analysis overview worksheet shows how one or more accounts, funds, or portfolios would perform if conditions from a past market event were to recur. It can give animportant apriori information toa risk or portfolio manager and helps to control the eect of price changes to a portfolio, especially those of. The entire process of the scenario analysis assumes. Scenario analysis it is commonly used to estimate changes to a portfolios value in response to an unfavorable event and can be used in examining a theoretical worstcase scenario. A strategy scenario may have similar elements, including the likelihood of occurrence, and the impact on the. Risk assessment besides the greeks there are other techniques. Risk scenario analysis is a technique to make it risk more concrete and tangible and to allow for proper risk analysis and assessment. How is a scenariobased ama implemented in practice to provide a case study of how risk management framework is used to reduce operational risk exposure in developing our operational risk. How is a scenariobased ama implemented in practice to provide a case study of how risk management framework is used to reduce operational risk exposure in developing our operational risk management approach, ufj have emphasized the integration of qualitative assessment, scenarioanalysis, and internal loss data in a single framework. Avoiding risk and failure to avoid poor investment decisions, scenario analysis allows businesses or investors to assess investment prospects. It is here defined as a method of measuring the volume of operational risks, which are to be accounted for in accordance with basel ii, with the. Sensitivity analysis scenario analysis it is utilized for analyzing the impact of the changes in critical variables on the project profitability.
Scenario analysis how to build scenarios in financial modeling. Studies deutschesinstitutfurentwicklungspolitik 39 methodsoffutureandscenarioanalysis overview,assessment,andselectioncriteria hannahkosow robertga. Macroeconomic scenario analysis which integrates climate scenarios has unique value to different classes of institutional investors, helping each to identify climaterelated weaknesses in portfolio management assumptions and address these vulnerabilities in risk management and riskadjusted return maximization. Sensitivity analysis is the process of sensitivity analysis is the process of recalculating outcomes. The scenario analysis is a method applied to determine the feasibility of the project in terms of the change in the underlying variables simultaneously. To avoid confusion, organisations should create separate but linked scenario and risk.
Its success in helping firms manage large capital investments and change corporate strategy has made it a standard tool. Scenario analysis is the process of estimating the expected value of a portfolio after a given period of time, assuming specific changes in the values of the portfolios securities or key factors. Scenario analysis once an year, owners of the processes are collecting operational scenarios every scenario describes the possibility of occurrence of operational loss. It examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being examined when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline values.